Has Donald Trump Won the Election? States Still in Play

Donald Trump has declared himself the winner of the 2024 presidential election after securing victory in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania.
“This is a magnificent victory for the American people, that will allow us to make America great again,” he told the crowd in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Wednesday morning. “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”
“It’s a political victory that our country is never seen before, nothing like this,” he added. “I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president.”
Although Trump has declared victory, he has not yet achieved the official required number of Electoral College votes.
The Associated Press has called the swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina for Trump, bringing his total to 267 Electoral College votes, while Harris stands at 224.
With Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin still undecided, 42 Electoral College votes in the battleground states remain up for grabs. To win, Harris would have to win all four of these states, and every other state that has not yet been called. Meanwhile, Trump could win without winning any more of the battleground states.
Trump is currently polling ahead of Harris in all four of the undeclared swing states, according to CNN, with 51 percent in Nevada and Wisconsin, 52 percent in Michigan and 50 percent in Arizona. Separately, he will likely win Alaska by a landslide, delivering him three electoral votes, meaning Harris is facing almost certain defeat. Trump has so far won around 51 percent of the vote in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.
Exit polls suggest that Trump could win the popular vote, with 51 percent of the overall vote to 47 percent for Harris.
Polls had suggested that Harris would win the popular vote, with forecaster Nate Silver giving the Vice President an over 70 percent chance of winning more votes than Trump.
However, election forecasters flip-flopped over who would win the Electoral College, with Harris ahead most of August and September. But at the beginning of October, the vice president saw her chances plunge as Trump made gains in crucial battleground states.
Since then, the race had been virtually tied, with Trump pulling slightly ahead in North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris was ahead in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump’s projected wins mark a dramatic reversal from 2020 when North Carolina was the only battleground state he won.
Meanwhile, Harris could be on track to perform worse than Hillary Clinton in 2016, who won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.
However, exit polls suggest that a majority of women (54 percent) backed Harris, according to the BBC, while men gave their support to Trump. Nevertheless, if Harris only won 54 percent of women, this would be worse than Biden’s performance in 2020, when he won 57 percent of women’s votes.
Previous analysis by Newsweek found that the gender gap in this election would be 9 points, with 52 percent of female voters backing Harris, compared to 43 percent of male voters.
Update on 11/06/24 at 04:26 a.m. ET: This article was updated with the latest figures and a new headline.